Articles

Logistic growth model and its variants have been adjudged to be the most appropriate model for forecasting human population. However, in this article, we estimated the carrying capacity of Abuja using the logistic model. Then, we presented the parameters used to ascertain that the logistic model has the best fit in modelling population growth of Abuja over time. Meanwhile, a population growth sensitivity analysis is presented for the year 1962 to 2200.The result shows that by the year 2050, Abuja population growth rate will be out of control, if nothing substantial is implemented. Similarly, from the year 2150, the results show that stability will return again. Furthermore, the result of the error analysis conducted on the logistic model shows that Abuja has a growing population and that logistic growth model with MAPE and RMSE values of 0.98% and 7,817.07 respectively is the most accurate. The study concludes that logistic growth model with R−squared value of 0.776 has the best fit for population growth projection of Abuja. With approximate growth rate at 9.3% per annum, the projected population of Abuja will hit 30,220,701 million by the year 2039 all things being equal. Therefore, we recommend that the government should invest in massive agricultural reforms to accommodate the growing population, expand Abuja by developing its suburbs, and engage in massive reorientation of the populace on the dangers of uncontrolled births and the education of the girl child.