Spatial Mismatches between Cyclone Exposure and Food System Impacts in Vanuatu: Integrating Topographic, Agro-Ecological, and Infrastructure Mediators for Resilience Planning

Universal Journal of Food Security | Vol 3, Issue 1

Figure 8

Three mediating pathways — not cyclone exposure — collectively determine 86% of food system impact variance in Vanuatu. The weak direct HEI→ISI relationship (r = 0.38) is intercepted by topographic buffering (reducing ISI by 40–60% at elevation), agro-ecological diversity (significant only below HEI = 0.7 threshold), and infrastructure capacity (generating up to 76% ISI differential independent of exposure) — demonstrating that vulnerability-explicit frameworks integrating all three pathways are necessary and sufficient for efficient adaptation resource allocation in SIDS contexts.

Figure 8. Three mediating pathways — not cyclone exposure — collectively determine 86% of food system impact variance in Vanuatu. The weak direct HEI→ISI relationship (r = 0.38) is intercepted by topographic buffering (reducing ISI by 40–60% at elevation), agro-ecological diversity (significant only below HEI = 0.7 threshold), and infrastructure capacity (generating up to 76% ISI differential independent of exposure) — demonstrating that vulnerability-explicit frameworks integrating all three pathways are necessary and sufficient for efficient adaptation resource allocation in SIDS contexts.